The Good Cheer Man
Saturday, July 17th, 2004 02:37 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
robinturnerIf newspapers looked at events in a really long-term way, we might have more cheerful headlines.
We are always being told how society is becoming more violent; in fact people have probably been saying this since Hammurabi decided to get tough on crime. However, the overall trend has been for societies to become less violent. Lawrence Stone's review of around twenty historical studies of crime in England shows an estimated murder rate of 20 per 100,000 in the thirteenth century. This had dropped to 7 by 1600, 4-5 by 1700 and around one by 1900. Given that records only go back to 1200, we may well be talking more like a 5,000 year low. Even in America (which generally has ten times the homicide rate of Europe) and even in the most crime-ridden cities, homicides are down to hunter-gatherer levels. Estimates of the murder rate among the "peaceful" !Kung go as high as 29 per 100,000, which is higher than medieval England or modern Detroit. If you happen to pass through the Kalahari, watch out for the drive-by spearings.
I've mentioned this one before, but it's worth ramming the point home. The studies which purported to show that watching violence on TV made children more aggressive were largely so flawed that they have been held up as examples of how not to do social science. The most (in)famous is that of Bandura, Ross and Ross, in which toddlers watched "violent" footage of adults gleefully hitting a Bobo doll (one of those dolls which bounces back after you hit it). Unsurprisingly, children who watched this were more likely to hit a Bobo doll than the control group. Ladies and gentleman, thank you for your contribution to the sum of human knowledge.
Serious studies of the effects of TV violence show either a tiny or a negative correlation with violent behaviour. The alternative view, that excessive TV-watching causes a fearful attitude and makes people over-estimate the likelihood of becoming a victim of crime, has also been discredited. The original results (Gerner, 1972) have not been replicated, and when the original data was re-analysed to take account for local crime rates, it turned out that heavy TV viewers were more worried about crime because they tended to live in high crime areas.
Studies have also shown that "American Gladiator" is considerably safer for participants than the original show, "Roman Gladiator".
Pundits of both left- and right-wing persuasions are fond of lamenting the decline in public education. The former group blame lack of funds and government interference; the latter blame lack of religion, lack of discipline, political correctness, drugs and government interference. Both groups appear to be wrong. Berliner and Biddle's (1995) survey of educational scores in America show NAEP scores virtually unchanged over the last two decades and GRE scores unchanged since the 1960s. Average SAT scores have declined slightly since the 1950s, but this is because more students are applying to university. Meanwhile in the UK, every time "A" level scores rise (which they have tended to do over the past couple of decades), rather than celebrating and giving teachers a bonus, ministers worry that standards are declining. There's no pleasing some people.
Violent Crime Hits 700-Year Low
We are always being told how society is becoming more violent; in fact people have probably been saying this since Hammurabi decided to get tough on crime. However, the overall trend has been for societies to become less violent. Lawrence Stone's review of around twenty historical studies of crime in England shows an estimated murder rate of 20 per 100,000 in the thirteenth century. This had dropped to 7 by 1600, 4-5 by 1700 and around one by 1900. Given that records only go back to 1200, we may well be talking more like a 5,000 year low. Even in America (which generally has ten times the homicide rate of Europe) and even in the most crime-ridden cities, homicides are down to hunter-gatherer levels. Estimates of the murder rate among the "peaceful" !Kung go as high as 29 per 100,000, which is higher than medieval England or modern Detroit. If you happen to pass through the Kalahari, watch out for the drive-by spearings.
Children Unaffected by Violent TV
I've mentioned this one before, but it's worth ramming the point home. The studies which purported to show that watching violence on TV made children more aggressive were largely so flawed that they have been held up as examples of how not to do social science. The most (in)famous is that of Bandura, Ross and Ross, in which toddlers watched "violent" footage of adults gleefully hitting a Bobo doll (one of those dolls which bounces back after you hit it). Unsurprisingly, children who watched this were more likely to hit a Bobo doll than the control group. Ladies and gentleman, thank you for your contribution to the sum of human knowledge.
Serious studies of the effects of TV violence show either a tiny or a negative correlation with violent behaviour. The alternative view, that excessive TV-watching causes a fearful attitude and makes people over-estimate the likelihood of becoming a victim of crime, has also been discredited. The original results (Gerner, 1972) have not been replicated, and when the original data was re-analysed to take account for local crime rates, it turned out that heavy TV viewers were more worried about crime because they tended to live in high crime areas.
Studies have also shown that "American Gladiator" is considerably safer for participants than the original show, "Roman Gladiator".
Nothing Wrong with Education System
Pundits of both left- and right-wing persuasions are fond of lamenting the decline in public education. The former group blame lack of funds and government interference; the latter blame lack of religion, lack of discipline, political correctness, drugs and government interference. Both groups appear to be wrong. Berliner and Biddle's (1995) survey of educational scores in America show NAEP scores virtually unchanged over the last two decades and GRE scores unchanged since the 1960s. Average SAT scores have declined slightly since the 1950s, but this is because more students are applying to university. Meanwhile in the UK, every time "A" level scores rise (which they have tended to do over the past couple of decades), rather than celebrating and giving teachers a bonus, ministers worry that standards are declining. There's no pleasing some people.
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no subject
Date: 2004-07-18 12:51 am (UTC)Thanks, this is stuff worth remembering.
What else?
Date: 2004-07-19 06:31 am (UTC)Slavery Reaches All Time Lows!
War Involves Smallest Part of Humanity of All Time!
Medicine Mostly Works!
and my favorite:
Hygiene Available!
ah, the good news.
Now how about good news for Turkey:
Frequent Election Cycle Yields Public Improvements!
Body Odor Decreases As BIM Introduces Deodorant!
European Union Negotiations Result in Some Freedoms!
Women Reach New Highs in Wacky, Screwy Society!