Looking on the bright side.

[robinturner]

Now war seems inevitable, it's time to sit back, take stock, and maybe look at the positive side. The possible negative consequences of war are to obvious to be worth mentioning, but it's worth contemplating what the world could gain from this mess.

1. It is just possible that in the end Bush and Blair's promises of a new, democratic, peaceful and prsoperous Iraq rising from the ashes will come true. I wouldn't count on it, and I don't think it makes the war legitimate ("Hi, we're going to invade your country to give you a better political system and raise your standard of living!") but it would be a major compensation, not just for the Iraqis, but for the region as a whole.
2. The rifts in international institutions caused by American and British arrogance (plus, to be fair, French opportunism and bloody-mindedness) might open a serious debate on the role of those institutions, notably the UN, and how they can function in a world dominated militarily and economically by the USA. It is not that Europe and America can't be friends; it is more that America needs to be made to realise that its idea of a "friend" needs revising considerably. A more responsible role for Russia seems to be one of the unexpected side-effects of te current crisis.
3. Americans are waking up to the misdeeds of this and previous administrations. The prospect of war made a lot of people do some serious personal research, and they didn't like what they found: US support for Islamic fundamentalism and repressive regimes, electoral fraud, criminal negligence in the lead up to September 11th, erosion of civil liberties and a piling of lies upon incompetence. An impeachment is too much to hope for, but some soul-searching is inevitable.
4. Most importantly, Bush and Blair have to be thanked for creating a new entity, the world public. We saw the beginnings of this phenomenon with the anti-globalisation protests, but they were still the work of a small sector of the left. Now there is almost a counter-coalition formed of millions of people from all countries and walks of life. They might not have stopped the war, but they have shown that it is not only domestic public opinion that politicians have to look out for. This time, the protests were spontaneous and largely unco-ordinated, but in the future, world public opinion will be more organised, articulate and powerful.

Comments

[oblomova.livejournal.com]

Thanks. This makes me feel somewhat better. Just somewhat. But it's the most reasonable thing I've read this week.

If only it comes to pass...

Yes, Robin,

[ankh156.livejournal.com]

Well-balanced commentary. They'll have to look out what they get up to - we're all watching like, er... birdwatchers !

Re: Yes, Robin,

[solri.livejournal.com]

Or bird-brain watchers?

Who's a bird-brain ?

[ankh156.livejournal.com]

I was going to say 'like hawks', but they're the hawks... so I suppose it's alright to say 'watching them like hawks', but I like hawks (we have buzzards, kestrels, peregrines and sparrow-hawks that regularly patrol our land), so...

My brain hurts.

Number 4 is the big one!

[ex-barza.livejournal.com]

" 4.Most importantly, Bush and Blair have to be thanked for creating a new entity, the world public. We saw the beginnings of this
phenomenon with the anti-globalisation protests, but they were still the work of a small sector of the left. Now there is almost a
counter-coalition formed of millions of people from all countries and walks of life. They might not have stopped the war, but they
have shown that it is not only domestic public opinion that politicians have to look out for. This time, the protests were spontaneous
and largely unco-ordinated, but in the future, world public opinion will be more organised, articulate and powerful."

I will second that . Many people, even anti-war protesters think that their screaming and chanting was all in vain when they see an inevitable war, but the global solidarity that this type of activity has created will in my opinion grow and this I believe will end the war (or atleast future wars) and convince even pro-war people that losing out on those billions of anti-war votes is not the way to go.

[circumambulate.livejournal.com]

You forgot one - If Iraq truly does become a free nation, which assumes that they can get past their own internal squabbles, it may help the Iranian public push towards a free, secular, state. They're already well on their way, and over half of the Iranian population is under 25, and none too happy with the fundies that are in power, right now.

[solri.livejournal.com]

That's a possibility- it all depends on the kind of regime that replaces Saddam. If it's seen as an American puppet, it may actually strengthen the hand of the fundamentalists in Iran.

The Blair/Bush vision (or at least the version of it they present to the public) is of a unified, democratic, prosperous Iraq becoming a force for stability and progress in the region. It's a nice idea, but there are so many factors in play that it's hard to say if there is a realistic chance of this happening.

[circumambulate.livejournal.com]

Yes, it will be difficult. Hopefully they can establish SOME kind of stable government, post-Saddam. The largest hurdle will be in preventing factional in-fighting, and reprisals. What is the perspective of what's going on, in Afghanistan, now, from your part of the world? We get so little news of it, here.

[solri.livejournal.com]

I have to say that in Turkey, as in most of the world, Afghanistan has been pretty much forgotten. There was a lot of interest during the Taliban regime because the Northern Alliance were largely from Turkic groups (Özbeks etc.) so there was considerable solidarity, ignoring the fact that the Northern Alliance were a bunch of bandits and fundamentalists who weren't noticably better than the Taliban (possibly worse - the Taliban were evil, but at least they were evil out of misguided principles, rather than just evil for the fun of it).

These days, attention is naturally focussed closer to home.